A year ago, we published an article detailing the prediction that the Boise housing market would crash. Obviously, the explosive nature of the allegation resulted in a loud reaction from Boise realtors and mortgage specialists, disagreeing with the premise of the article.

Were we right to predict the housing market crash? While real estate professionals will argue that the market is adjusting and not crashing, the evidence would indicate that our market is crashing. The Boise housing market is leading the nation in price reductions. The Hill reported that 'Boise, Idaho, a thriving pandemic boomtown, is the fastest-cooling in the nation.' Their article references a study from SmartAsset that ranked the top ten American housing markets that are cooling off. 

From their study:

'The housing market in Boise, Idaho is cooling off the most relative to all other metro areas in our study. Boise has the sixth-lowest ratio of number of sold houses to new listings (0.49), meaning that almost twice as many houses are being listed relative to ones that are sold. The median days a house sits on the market is 20, and this figure is almost 186% higher than one year previously.'

I believe we can now declare the era of Boise being the most overvalued housing market in America over. For two years, Idaho's capital city led the nation in inflated home values. However, let's go back to our prediction last year:

From last year's article:

In his Youtube video, Nicholas Gerli, Founder and CEO of Renventure Consulting, the data from Realtor.com shows that Boise leads the nation in price reductions at 920%. He says that the Boise, Idaho market was ten times as many listeners on the market a year ago. Gerli reports that the housing crash has started in Boise, Stockton, and Austin, and now is a much better time to buy now.  

"Boise is in a full-fledged housing crash," Gerli says. "It's important to remember in a place like Boise that has the number one job growth in America, the number three inward migration in America is in a housing crash." He says that those on the West Coast who predicted the housing crash wouldn't happen were wrong. Gerli indicates that housing prices will be reduced twenty to forty percent from where they are today.  

Gerli's prediction has rung true in Boise and across the America. We're seeing more homes on the market and continued price reductions. When will it end?  We'll ask Gerli if he has an answer to that question.

You can see his entire prediction about Boise here.

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