New Boise Weather Predictions Show Chances of a White Christmas in 2022

You’ve been singing along with Bing Crosby for weeks, but did you ever stop to think about how meteorologists actually define a “White Christmas?” 

We’d venture to guess, most of us picture big fluffy snowflakes falling gently outside the window while we curl up with a steaming cup of coffee and watch the kids unwrap their gifts on Christmas morning. It’s like something straight out of a Thomas Kinkade painting. 

We don’t want to burst your sparkly, Christmas bubble but the National Weather Service’s definition is far less picturesque. They define December 25 as a “White Christmas” if there’s more than an inch of snow on the ground at the Boise Airport at 5 a.m. It’s only happened 23 times since the National Weather Service started tracking this specific statistic in 1939. 

A few weeks ago, we shared that based on historical data, Boise had a 27.7% chance of experiencing a White Christmas by that definition and a 20.4% chance of measurable snowfall falling on Christmas Day, but it was too early to say what Christmas 2022 would look like. 

But now that we’re less than a week away from Christmas Day? We feel more comfortable looking ahead at the forecast to see if a White Christmas by any definition feels realistic. Here’s what the experts in our area are saying about snow in the Boise area leading up to Christmas. 

The Weather Channel

Do you want snow? Here’s what The Weather Channel is predicting for the next few days. There’s a 60% chance of snow but less than an inch of it sticking Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. That 60% chance of snow returns on Thursday night and could leave 1-3” of snow n the valley floor. They expect the snow to taper off during the day on Friday with less than an inch of additional accumulation. Temperature-wise, they don’t expect it to get more than a degree over-freezing until Christmas Day so it’s likely that if their forecast holds, there will be snow on the ground on Christmas morning.

Weather Underground

Weather Underground is fairly by the numbers. They think we’ll get 1” on Tuesday, .4” on Wednesday, 1.9” on Thursday, .6” on Friday and .2” on Saturday. That’s…way too hard to count on our fingers. Point is that if it stays as cold as they think it will, that snow will still be around on Christmas Day. They even think there’s a possibility of an additional .1” of snow ON Christmas Day. It’s not much, but it could still look pretty outside your window!  

KTVB

The last forecast that Jim Duthie posted on KTVB’s website said that there’s a chance of .5-1” of snow possible Tuesday into Wednesday with more snow showers on the way on Friday. The additional showers could bring the snow totals in the Boise area up to 3-4.” If the forecast holds, high temperatures will be cold enough that the snow should stick around, meaning that by the meteorological definition we’ll likely have a White Christmas. If you want snow falling ON Christmas, he only gives that a 20% chance of happening. 

CBS 2

The last forecast posted by CBS 2’s weather anchor, Vasili Varlamos, predicts “1-2 inches over from today through Wednesday.” He mentions the next story heading our way into Friday and acknowledges that it will bring more snow, but didn’t say how much. 

Treasure Valley Weather HQ

Kody at Treasure Valley Weather HQ is probably the forecaster that people trust the most. Looking through his latest updates, he believes that the Treasure Valley could see some accumulation from the light snow showers falling Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. His graphic for “Weather Leading up to Christmas” reads “Widespread accumulating snowfall possible Friday right before Christmas!” If his models hold and it stays cold, that snow will probably still be on the ground on Christmas Day.