After logging thousands of miles on Idaho highways, meeting Idahoans at hundreds of town hall meetings, and endless media interviews, Idahoans will decide who will be the state's next governor Tuesday.

Does anyone know who is the Democrat running for governor in Idaho? In years past, Democrats would feel a candidate who gets roughly thirty to forty percent of the votes. However, the lack of a liberal candidate means Idaho voters will choose between Republican Brad Little and Independent Ammon Bundy.

The intelligent political money is on the governor retaining his office due to his name recognition, the Idaho economy, and popularity among Republicans and Democrats. If the Idaho Republican Party Primary indicates the governor's popularity, then Tuesday night's election will be over quickly.

The same political expert predicted that Hillary Clinton would beat Donald Trump handily in 2016. We all know what happened during that race. Could we see a Trump-like Bundy electoral undercurrent that allows the independent to over perform and possibly winning?

How Governor Little Loses

The Idaho political establishment has been threatened before when then Governor Butch Otter narrowly defeated then State Senator Russ Fulcher in the Republican Primary. Senator Fulcher won Idaho's three most populous counties. Idaho Republicans sent a message that they were not happy with the soon-to-be three-term governor. The term used to describe the narrow win by the governor was 'Otter fatigue.'



How Bundy Wins

The Idaho political establishment has been threatened before when then Governor Butch Otter narrowly defeated then State Senator Russ Fulcher in the Republican Primary. Senator Fulcher won Idaho's three most populous counties. Idaho Republicans sent a message that they were not happy with the soon-to-be three-term governor. The term used to describe the narrow win by the governor was 'Otter fatigue.'

A quick look at Governor Little's Idaho

Brad Little's four years as governor.

There are a few factors that the local media outlets will not recognize or refuse to acknowledge during this campaign. The not-so-hidden secret in Idaho party politics is that support of Janice McGeachin, Ed Humphreys, and Steve Bradshaw will vote for the governor. Are there enough marginalized Republicans to swing the election to Mr. Bundy?

Let's break down the numbers: Idaho has about a million registered voters; almost six hundred thousand voters are Republicans, about one hundred thirty thousand Democrats, almost two hundred eighty thousand independent voters, eleven thousand Libertarians, and about four thousand Constitutional Party members.

Mr.Bundy needs to split the Republican vote with Governor Little and then take the majority of the independent voters. If Stephen Heidt, the Democrat running for governor, attracts the majority of the state democrat votes, it eliminates the democratic votes from the electoral equation.

Ammon Bundy Fight for Liberty

A look at Mr. Bundy's Crusades

The election comes down to Mr. Bundy attracting enough anti-Litte Republicans and then harvesting the massive independent vote. You could also throw in that Mr. Bundy's voting base is more motivated than the governor's.

The governor wins if conventional wisdom and tax cuts prevail. We look forward to hearing your thoughts and predictions on this very important election.

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