In 2022, Boise's first measurable snowfall showed up ahead of schedule. If you were giddy about it, you're probably dreaming of a white Christmas. Will it happen this year?

When you look at the snowfall records the National Weather Service has kept for Boise since, 1899, the first measurable snowfall normally happens around November 22. This year, we'd already seen 1.7" of snow by then. By the end of the November, Boise experienced a total of 3.2" of snowfall.

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If you've been awake while the snowfall was happening, you know that it's been pretty peaceful and serene. It really hasn't stuck around long and we know some of you are grateful for that. That makes the commute into the office and the drop-offs at school a lot easier. Others of us wish there was glittering snow with staying power on the ground to make it feel more like the Christmas season.

Photo by Evie Fjord on Unsplash
Photo by Evie Fjord on Unsplash

We hate to be the bearers of bad news, but the odds of Boise having a White Christmas are pretty darn slim. The National Weather Service considers a "White Christmas" a December 25 where there is more than an inch of snow on the ground at the present-day Boise Airport at 5 a.m. It's only happened 23 times since the National Weather Service started tracking this specific statistic in 1939. That means Boise has a 27.7% chance of it happening again.

Perhaps you're a little less scientific than they are. You don't care what time on Christmas Day the snow comes. If there are flakes flying and sticking sometime on December 25, you consider that a "White Christmas." Fair enough, but the probability of that happening is even worse. Measurable snowfall has only fallen on Christmas Day 17 times since 1939. That means there's about a 20.4% chance of it happening this year.

Does that mean you should disappoint Bing Crosby and give up dreaming of a White Christmas? Hardly! Remember 2016? Snowpocalypse really began on December 23, with the most significant of that snowfall from that first storm happening on Christmas Eve. By Christmas Day? The snow depth was 9".

If you've got your heart set on a White Christmas, here's an interesting look back at what Boise's weather has been like on Christmas since 1878!

What is Boise's Weather Like on Christmas Day?

We hate to break it to you, but the probability of a White Christmas in Idaho's capital city isn't great. The average temperature on Christmas Day is 36º. The average snowfall is about .2" and there's typically no measurable snow on the ground. But that doesn't mean you should give up hope! Here's a look at some weather extremes that took place on December 25 in the Treasure Valley!

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According to the Farmer's Almanac, these are some mostly non-weather signs that Boise could be in for a harsh winter. Have you noticed any of them happening?

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